Tigers' strategy in exposing the inability of the Sri Lankan state to implement Cease Fire Agreement

The imminent danger of a war exploding anytime seems to have receded. The question whether Erick Solheim's arrival would determine the date for negotiations or the date for a war, was uppermost in most of the minds. Erick Solheim has specified the date for talks relieving of this great anxiety.

The sooner the new government assumed power, situation in the north and east deteriorated fast, heading for a great war exploding. Those around Mahintha Rajapakse are seeped in their conviction that the way to solve the ethnic issue, is waging war and not talking peace.

But the fear of the strength of the Tigers is a great obstacle to opt for war. Besides, as the talks with the Tigers are in progress, the new regime wants to earn the support of the international community to exert severe pressure on the Tigers and thus push down an unfair solution down their throats.

The present Foreign minister Mangala Samaraweera is following right on the foot prints of his predecessor Laxman Kadirgamar. The state expects to crush the Struggle for the liberation of Eelam by having the Tigers banned internationally and thus prevent they being heard by the outer world.

But, the fear of the Tigers, the great respect they command among the people and the waxing recognition of the Struggle for Eelam have all combined to create a situation in which every step the state takes is reversed by two.

The shadow war introduced during the regime of Chandrika in the east has now spread up to the north, creating an atmosphere of impending war. The talks on implementing the CFA, scheduled to take place in Geneva in the middle of next month, is the last opportunity to dampen this explosive situation.

The Sri Lankan state tried another of its political manoeuvre in the choice of venue for the talks. It declared firmly that the talks could only be held either in Sri Lanka or in another Asian country. It continued to reject Norway as the place for talks as proposed by the Tigers.

When the European union announced travel restriction on the Tigers in Europe in the end of last year, the former president of Sri Lanka, Chandrika and the present president Mahintha Rajapakse, tried hard to bring about the European union's proscription of the Tigers.

Sri Lanka badly needed to curtail the internationally known ethnic issue of Sri Lanka to be narrowed down within Asian limits. Therefore it was hell bent on having the talks with the Tigers in an Asian country than in Europe.

Should the talks take place in Europe or in one of the Scandinavian countries, the situation would not allow the European union to proscribe the Tigers. Further more, the Sri Lankan state disliked the ethnic issue gathering increased international publicity and recognition.

While the Sri Lankan state desired the ban on Tigers by the European union which would eventually result in the activities of the Tigers ceasing completely, it also planned to completely stall their fund raising and propaganda activities in Europe. Besides, the need to tone down the international attention the issue has earned, to Asian boundaries had become urgent for Sri Lanka.

Mahintha Rajapakse does not possess the international influence that President Chandrika could wield. Former foreign minister and Chandrika had the power to charm the European leaders. Mahintha Rajapakse lacks the ability even to approach the European leaders. The present foreign minister Mangala Samaraweera's position too is the same.

Those who accuse the Tigers as the assassinators of minister Kadirgamar, say that already at the time of Kadirgamar's assassination, the Tigers had schemed to defeat Ranil Wickremasinghe so that Mahintha Rajapakse could become the president.

Many are of the opinion that since Mahintha Rajapakse's influence is restricted within Asian countries like India, Pakistan, Japan and China, he had tried to channel the talks to one of these countries, hoping to clip the wings of popularity and legitimacy the Tigers enjoy, with the help of the leaders of these countries. This was why Mahintha and his associates were so confident and adamant in issuing statements that the talks will never be held either in Europe or Norway.

But the pressure wielded very diplomatically by the Tigers had made them to descend and accept any of the European country as the venue for talks. The Tigers did not have to strain themselves at all to effect this; all what they did was to maintain that Norway should be the venue for the talks and not any other country.

The Tigers stuck firmly to their stand about the venue for talks as they simultaneously retaliated very effectively to the shadow war thrust on them, causing panic in the armed forces of the state. This made the JVP and Jathika Hela Urumaya to exert immense pressure on the government not to give in to the Tigers and the state too openly declared that it will never accede to the proposal of the Tigers.

When Tigers questioned as to why Norway, being the facilitator of the peace process, cannot host the talks, Mahintha ruled out even the suggestion of Norway as the venue and instead offered Europe, providing the names of five European countries to choose from. And he had declared that the talks will not be held anywhere other than in the countries suggested by him.

But, when Eric Solheim met with the Tigers, they accepted his proposal to hold talks in Switzerland as a matter of fact. Mahintha Rajapakse received the acclaim of his acquaintances for having cornered the Tigers into accepting one of the five countries suggested by him, renouncing their demand that Norway should be the place for talks.

Mahintha and his associates had pledged themselves to make the European union proscribe Tigers and to prevent the ethnic issue gaining international recognition, by demanding that the talks should not take place in Europe. But the Tigers have diplomatically scored a victory by making the same Mahintha & co. to choose the very European venues which they had so adamantly rejected and in having a date fixed for the talks.

When the shadow war spread to the north and the danger of a real and terrible war loomed ahead, the countries of the world pressed on the government to avoid the war by implementing the CFA fully. They insisted that under no circumstance the CFA should be allowed to be breached and that war could only be avoided by adhering to each of its stipulation.

America, in this respect, went a step further to warn the Tigers very severely. It warned that the Tigers would come to pay a heavy price should they renege on the CFA and go to war. It also had warned that the Tigers, in the event of a war breaking, would have to face a very powerful Sri Lankan army and that America would assist the Sri Lankan forces in the war.

This severe warning and the interest expressed by the international countries are but calls for the full implementation of the CFA, insisting on the implementation of the CFA made in 2002.

The Tigers too, have been stressing this aspect for four years since the very signing of the agreement. It is curious that the international community which had not paid heed to the Tigers' repeated pleas, is now requesting the very same thing from the Tigers!

The total implementation of the CFA is an essential prerequisite to the creation of an atmosphere of peace through the restoration of normalcy in the north and east. Neither the former prime minister Ranil Wickremasinghe who signed the CFA nor the former President Chandrika who came into power after him had adhered to this agreement.

It is obvious that the CFA was violated to the maximum, after Mahintha became president; the shadow war grew in intensity creating a situation precipitating a great war. The Geneva talks are to be held to discuss the full implementation of the CFA in order to stop this war breaking.

Both parties are being praised by the whole world for having consented to hold talks. The international community has appealed to them to begin peace talks and to fully implement all conditions of the CFA, creating an atmosphere of normalcy conducive to solve the ethnic issue.

Thus the talks concerning the full implementation of the CFA has become more important than the talks for finding a solution. Since the whole world has strongly urged the full implementation of the CFA, the failure to do so will result in pushing the world countries to take appropriate measures to remedy the situation.

This situation has provided the Tigers a great advantage to expose the truth that the Sri Lankan government will never implement the CFA fully.

There are three very important clauses in the CFA to avoid war through the creation of an atmosphere of normalcy. When these are implemented the situation leading to war will be dispelled. It is expected that the Tigers, in the Geneva talks, would offer a short period of grace to implement these three aspects which the Sri Lanka governments in power refuse continually to implement in the last four years.

The three aspects are as follows:

The high security zones should be demilitarised and returned to the people.

The armed forces should vacate from residential areas.

The Tamil paramilitary bands should be disarmed and expelled out of the north and east regions.

The failure to implement these three conditions may result in the end of the CFA. The Tigers too, may withdraw themselves from the CFA.

If the Sri Lanka government fails to implement these conditions in good faith, it would be interpreted as their refusal to create an atmosphere of normalcy in the north and east and avoid imminent war.

What measures would the international community is going to adopt if the Sri Lanka government fails to implement these three important conditions of the CFA? The question as to why the countries of the world did not take into account, the conditions that led the country to the brink of war caused by the serious breach of the CFA by one faction not implementing the CFA for four years, arises too.

In the light of the above facts the Geneva talks are of paramount importance. Who are those obstructing the full implementation of the CFA? Who are those obstructing the creation of an atmosphere of normalcy? Who are those obstructing the negotiations?

Soon the answers for these questions would clearly reveal themselves. Soon it would be clear as to what measures the international community is to adopt against those responsible for these hindrances.

This article is written by Vithuran and translated by Vannijan

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