Will the hectic premeditations and discussion workshops help?

The Truce, which ended the ongoing war between the government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), is four years old now. The Cease fire agreement (CFA) between the United National Front and the LTTE, with Norway's mediation, was signed on the 22nd of February 2002. The signatories to this agreement are, Honourable V. Pirabhakaran on behalf of the LTTE and Ranil Wickremasinghe representing the government.

On the fourth anniversary day since this historically important agreement came into force, another equally important event is about to take place. It is true the clouds of war disappeared from our skies to an extent after the signing of the agreement.

Even though there was a truce in force assassinations and anxiety did continue unabated. Various changes occurred both politically and in the combat power of the forces. When the sabotage attempt to split the Liberation Tigers organisation was foiled, a shadow war was waged intensively by the government intelligence unit.

Particularly, since Mahintha Rajapakse assuming power as the new president of GOSL, a dangerous situation began to gradually develop, leading to an explosion of war between the two factions.

Mahintha Rajapakse, contesting presidential election on behalf of the United Peoples Freedom Alliance, armed with a manifesto aimed at satisfying the Sinhala hard liners, received the support of the majority of the Sinhala people and has become the president.

Mahintha's stance on 'Resolution only within a Unitary rule', an impracticable solution, came under severe criticism internationally. As India too dealt a serious blow to the high hopes of Mahintha, a situation arose where he had to consent for a talk with the LTTE. Willingly or otherwise, green signal had to be given to Norway to act as the facilitator. Though unwilling to accept defeat, controversies continued on selecting the venue for talks.

Mahintha's attempt to enforce the view of hardliners, that talks if held in a European country would invariably result in the international recognition of the LTTE, failed. Now, the talks between the GosL and the LTTE are to commence in an European country and that too in Geneva where the head quarters of the United Nations is situated. This is considered a great diplomatic victory for the LTTE.

Observers are of the view that the Geneva talks will create an awkward and difficult situation for the GOSL. Realising this the government is bent on strengthening its delegation to the talks as much as it can. A team of American diplomats has been introduced in this scheme.

Besides, the Indian political analysist Narayanaswamy, who deals with subjects involving Sri Lanka, has trained the GOSL team. It is believed that these arrangements would psychologically strengthen the Sri Lankan team. Let us analyse the reason for the government's fear relating to the LTTE in this context.

Anton Balasingham, the political advisor of the LTTE, who is to head its team in the talks, has the experience of participating in negotiations with the governments of India and Sri Lanka. He is endowed with a clear vision and deep knowledge of the national ethnic issue in Sri Lanka.

It is said that Prof. G. L. Perris had already cautioned the government about Anton Balasingham's power of diplomacy which had created great discomfiture to the government's negotiation team earlier and this is the reason for these preparations.

In addition to this, the views and forecasts obtained from the analysists engaged in the study of the political moves of the LTTE, have added to the government's apprehension.

It has been warned that the failure to engage in talks without proper preparations would increase the international pressure exerted on the government and create political crisis in the island. In consequence, workshops and seminars had been held. The LTTE has made it clear that it will not discuss political resolutions in the Geneva talks.

Consensus for the talks has been reached only on the basis that the subject of the talks will be the implementing of the CFA. In this context, the precautionary measures taken by the government raises various suspicions. Many aspects specified in the CFA, signed by the GosL and the LTTE, have not been implemented by the government so far.

The govt. delegation has been briefed how to face the accusations placed by the LTTE during the talks where the Norwegian mediators will be present. This attitude, of the government in relation to the truth in the LTTE's accusations or the present critical situation which had been caused by not implementing the CFA, is full of confusions.

The government armed forces, for their own benefit, continue to encourage the paramilitaries and under their control, assist them fully in their activities. The co-chair countries which offer help to Sri Lanka have, on several instances, pointed to this matter. It is said that these statements would add weight to the LTTE.

At the same time, it is expected that the LTTE would point out to the fact that so far the armed forces have not been vacated from places declared as High security zones in the Tamil homeland regions which is one of the specified condition in the agreement.

The government faction is seriously exploring as how to deal with these two accusations.

It is said that the final decision of the government would be to deviate the talks by heaping accusations on the LTTE, hiding their own faults. Meanwhile, the government has, in order to distract LTTE's attention and to misdirect the talks, abducted the Tamils' Rehabilitation personnel using one of its paramilitaries.

The government wants this abduction to develop into a major problem and by taking this to the negotiation table, it tries to strengthen its stand. This incident of abduction is seen as a sabotage attempt by the government to make the world believe that it has nothing to do with the abduction and that an independent group opposed to peace is responsible for the abduction.

However, certain moves have been made by the government faction to distract attention away from the non implementation of the CFA by it. But the question is, whether this plot of the government would be feasible in the presence of a third party. We will get the answers for these questions on the 23nd from Geneva and let's wait until then.

| The full tamil version of this article is published in Sankathi Tamil News Service, the article is written by Sathirijan and translated by Mathini |

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