November is going to be a unique month that is going to determine the political course of Sri Lanka. President Rajapakse completes his tenure of one year in office by the end of November.

A budget with double defence expenditure is to be submitted by the government in Parliament on 15 November. Several disasters and calamitous incidents of damaging nature also took place within the last two weeks this November.

In these circumstances, a meeting of the Co-chair countries is scheduled in Washington this month of November to deliberate on the failure of the Geneva Peace Talks, and the consequent political climate in Sri Lanka.

Political observers speculate that the Co-chair countries will express their stand on Sri Lanka in the statement they will release at the conclusion of the their meeting. It is also speculated that their joint statement would be couched in strong language and will be shocking to the parties.

There are chances that the decisions of the Co-chair countries will exert strong pressure on both, the Sri Lanka government and the LTTE. That is also going to take place in this month of November.

The traditional annual address by LTTE Leader Prabaharan on the Heroes’ Day explaining his political commitment is going to be delivered this month.

On the occasion of the last Heroes’ Day, LTTE Leader stated that they would offer President Rajapakse a brief space of time to put forward a political solution to meet the legitimate aspirations of the Tamil people and that if his government failed, the LTTE would lead a struggle with the support and the solidarity of the Tamil people to win their right to self determination.

Now one year has rolled by since then. It has become clear not only to the Tamil people but also to the international community that Rajapakse government has no earnest commitment to place a fair solution.

President Rajapakse came to power on a mandate that he would create a political consensus in the South within three months of his assumption of duties on the ethnic issue and then discuss it with the LTTE. He failed in it. But the UNP, the major opposition party, collaborated with the government in quest for a consensus.

But the government has not seized this rare opportunity. Instead, it proceeds to prevaricate on the lines of military solution.

It will be made clear as to what stand the LTTE Leader is going to announce and what steps he is going to suggest by the end of this month in his address on the Heroes’ Day and in the background of government’s failure to place a solution.

In a context where there are attacks on the Tamils, when there are violations of the Ceasefire Agreement, where there is a humanitarian crisis in the North-East, when the government expenditure on defence has doubled, when the military offensive against the LTTE is intensified with the support of the Paramilitary groups and finally when there is a pressure by the international group to negotiate for peace, the LTTE leader is going to deliver his historic and traditional address on the Heroes’ Day.

This November, thus, is going to be a unique month.

The speculation is whether the LTTE Leader’s address will be a clarion call for peace or a trumpet for war.

This November will determine the destiny of the country.

An English translation of the Editorial in Uthayan, a Tamil daily, based in Jaffna

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