There was speculation among political analysts whether this message to Norway indicates a deviation from Sri Lanka’s policies, effective communications having broken down between the two governments for about a year. Yesterday however, the Norwegian Embassy in Colombo was to state there were no immediate plans for Hanssen-Bauer to visit Sri Lanka.

However with President Rajapakse’s call for resumption of Norwegian facilitation, the question arises whether the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) reached between former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Velupillai Pirapaharan, the LTTE leader, is being resuscitated. Mahinda Rajapakse was a severe critic of the CFA while in opposition, particularly as the presidential candidate. The SLFP still speaks of it derogatively and attribute many of the debacles caused in recent times to this agreement although it has not been formally rejected.

Its acceptance would indeed be a volte-face in the Mahinda Chinthana and result in big problems to the JHU, its coalition partner which opposes the agreement tooth and nail. Rajapakse’s other political ally, the JVP has already washed its hands off the SLFP.

Does this also mean that the military operations in the east about which the Rajapakse administration is gung- ho will come to a halt?

President Rajapakse, however, is quite an exponent of performing political somersaults forwards and backwards in quick succession and how it will end only Rajapakse and his brothers will know.

President Rajapakse has been severely criticised and brought under very strong pressure by the powerful Western group of nations involved in the Sri Lankan peace process, particularly in the field of human rights.

This group, the donor group, involved in the Sri Lankan peace process — US, EU, Japan and Norway met at Oslo two weeks ago and decided to convey to the Sri Lanka government and the LTTE some resolutions adopted. They are: No military solution to the conflict is possible; human rights violations by both the government and the LTTE must cease including abductions and disappearances; access to be provided to Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) for International Non Government Organisations; acceptance of Norway as a peace facilitator and Norwegian representatives be provided access to Kilinochchi to meet LTTE representatives.

The new concerns expressed are: Military operations of Karuna Group in the east and a possible alteration of the ethnic balance in the Eastern Province following Sampur- Muttur areas being declared high security zones.

The donors have also held that the government of Sri Lanka being a party to all major human rights conventions, has more responsibility and legal obligations to safeguard human rights.

Some analysts have claimed since the government has already cleared the Eastern Province of the LTTE it can negotiate from a position of strength. It may be in a stronger position than what the UNP was placed in when they signed the CFA and the LTTE continued to go on the offensive but whether the LTTE Leader is prepared to accept defeat and his resolve for a separate state has been weakened, is very much in doubt.

Further reports from the east suggest that the LTTE has tactically withdrawn from several areas and the military after clearing other areas have left it to the police to hold the territory. This some analysts believe could well be the trap the LTTE Political Wing Leader S.P. Tamilselvan adverted to when he talked of strategic withdrawals with the police becoming vulnerable targets for hit and run operations.

Pirapaharan has fought back and lasted even after being driven out of Jaffna. Thus his reaction to defeats in the east is to be seen. It is also pertinent to note that the east was cleared even under President Ranasinghe Premadasa’s tenure and local elections held only to see the Tigers infiltrating yet again and taking control of vast territory. That is why it is important for operations to be carried out with military objectives rather than to achieve a narrow political time table as alleged by the JVP.

Time however is now opportune for Mahinda Rajapakse to play his peace cards, provided he is willing to drop his macho image. He should now seek the role of a peace maker and produce a political package acceptable to the Tamil people as suggested by the donor group.

The SLFP proposals produced before the All Party Conference — devolution at district level — have been rejected by all Tamil parties as well as those in the south. A much more acceptable package is called for. With such a move he can turn tables on the LTTE because Velupillai Pirapaharan has categorically declared on many occasions that he will not accept any proposal other than a separate state.

Rajapakse is President today by the grace of Pirapaharan and he knows it but the question is whether he is going to play his cards the way the Tiger supremo wants him to. So far he has acted just the way the Tiger Leader would have wanted him to and was possibly why former Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera said Rajapakse was Pirapaharan’s dream President.

Rajapakse is now at cross-roads and has to decide whether he is to take a new path or keep plodding on the old road that leads to nowhere but Eelam, deal or no deal.

Comments (2)

Subscribe to this comment's feed