While Sri Lanka was getting increasingly isolated internationally due to the deteriorating human rights situation and a lack of political direction in resolving the ethic crisis, the SLFP-UNP MoU also hung by a thread last week given President Mahinda Rajapakse's insistence any political settlement must be based on maximum devolution within a unitary state.

The UNP has already gone on record in writing that it will only support a solution based on the Tokyo Declaration which includes the Oslo Communiqu where both the then government and the LTTE agreed to explore a federal formula, but with the President reiterating his commitment to the unitary state in an interview with NDTV in India, it was back to square one as far as the main opposition was concerned. Confusion Making matters worse was the JVP's rejection of the maximum devolution position of the President as spelt out by Science and Technology Minister Tissa Vitharana who is heading the All Party Representative Committee (APRC).

This in effect left Rajapakse stranded mid-sea without a paddle. In characteristic style he was once again trying to be all things to all men and ending up in no man's land.
Adding to this confusion was LTTE Leader Velupillai Pirapaharan who through his 'Heroes' Day' speech renewed the call for a separate state and placed the ball in Rajapakse's court to respond to the challenge.

There is no gainsaying, for the LTTE to achieve a separate state in terms of the Eelam map which served as the background to Pirapaharan's speech, many a military success would have to be achieved and the unsaid message was that he would proceed to do so.

In effect, Pirapaharan's message was an invitation to war, aimed specifically at the Sinhala hardliners who have been demanding the same, thus forcing Rajapakse to decide which way he wants to go. Failure to take up this challenge, of course, would necessarily place the President at odds with his allies and underscore the popular view that the war is unwinnable, whilst on the other hand any escalation of the conflict will bring with it devastating consequences to an already tottering economy and further international isolation.

Political disaster Either way, the President is heading for a political disaster in the south, having to juggle the political balls that are the JVP, UNP, JHU, the donor community, Co-Chairs, India and the military at the same time due to the absence of a clear policy platform and it does not take a rocket scientist to surmise that he is bound to drop one or more of these balls sooner than later.

It is in this overall backdrop, the President was to meet with the Indian political leadership last week including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, where it was made patiently clear they cannot watch silently much longer the developments in Sri Lanka given the gross human rights violations and the humanitarian crisis, particularly in the north and east.

The President's visit to India was originally planned for the purpose of invoking the blessings of the Hindu Goddess Durga (Kali Amma) by offering various poojas to offset the bad times ahead as per the astrological predictions, but the powers that be wanted the colouration of an official visit to detract from the public's curiosity and accordingly zeroed in on an Asian Mayors' Conference at Dehradun.

And true to form, with a 52-member strong delegation including officials and media personnel, the President took wing to India having also arranged meetings with the political leadership, thereby making it official, where the full media focus was understandably the outcome of the talks with Premier Manmohan Singh. And the crucial meetings with the Indian political leadership including those with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Prime Minister Singh were to take place on Tuesday, November 28 and November 29 respectively and it is at these meetings the President was told in no uncertain terms to get his act together fast.

Meetings in India That the meetings did not go as anticipated was best evident from the state controlled Daily News of Thursday, November 30, in which its lead headline quoted a statement made by Opposition Leader L.K. Advani on not allowing Sri Lanka's division whereas the all important Manmohan Singh meeting was relegated to the third paragraph.

And here's why.

Prior to Wednesday's luncheon with the Indian Prime Minister, the President met with External Affairs Minister Mukherjee where some strong medicine was administered on the developments in Sri Lanka and the need for a viable political solution. This meeting was practically a re-run of the one Mukherjee's Secretary, Shiv Shankar Menon had with Rajapakse the previous week though the message was more direct and potent. It is the following day, Thursday, that the meeting with the Prime Minister took place at his official residence in New Delhi followed by a luncheon which was restricted to four persons from each side.

The Indian side included the Prime Minister, External Affairs Minister Mukherjee, Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon and National Security Advisor N.K. Narayanan. The Sri Lankan team comprised President Rajapakse, Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera, Minister Douglas Devananda and Foreign Secretary H.M.S. Palihakkara. The lunch no doubt lost its flavour for the President, having to digest the tough message of the Indian Premier with a point blank refusal on joint patrolling in the Palk Straits. The President built up expectations on a possible agreement on this issue with the state media running headline stories of the request to be made but the Indian side would have none of it primarily because of the human rights situation in the north east which had Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi breathing down the centre.

And the failure to forward a viable political solution was another irritant to India.
Indeed, Prime Minister Singh in writing informed Karunanidhi before Rajapakse's visit, inter alia, "We have taken great care not to provide Sri Lanka with lethal offensive items of military hardware that could be used against the Tamil population." Thus, it was clear from the outset Rajapakse was to get nothing out of the visit. Indian position Instead, the crumb the Indian Premier threw at Rajapakse was a proposal for coordinated patrolling, which in effect was nothing more than a faster way of communicating any suspect movements, with each country to do their own patrolling.

And that was only for starters.

Then came the Indian position on the humanitarian crisis and the need for a political solution, with Manmohan Singh expressing serious concern over the deteriorating situation. The President was told violence has escalated sharply in the north and east leading to a serious human rights situation which was having far-reaching political repercussions in India. A clear distinction was also drawn between the LTTE and the Tamil people and the President informed the two should not be mixed up by the security forces.

Not stopping at that, the President was told it was difficult for India to keep quiet in such a situation and called for immediate steps to be taken ensuring the humanitarian crisis and the human rights situations are brought under control. Prime Minister Singh said India's task is not made any easier due to the lack of progress on the political front and called on the President to expedite the process, and table his solution speedily.

Rajapakse for his part said it was the LTTE which created hostile conditions with unprovoked attacks soon after his election, not giving him time to even work towards a political solution. Milking the MoU with the UNP to the optimum, the President said he was working towards a southern consensus and hoped to submit a political framework within a couple of weeks, little realising that would only be a pipe dream unless he shifts to a federal formula as articulated by the UNP. This fact was not lost on the Indian side and it was made known to Rajapakse he had to deliver a viable solution which met with the political aspirations of the Tamil speaking people, which in effect tantamounted to federalism.

It was further said, if the solution forwarded met that criteria, then India and other key players in the international community would get involved and use their good offices to gain acceptance for it among moderate Tamils.

'Defensive operations' That was not all.

The Indian team also focused on the 'defensive operations' of the Sri Lanka security forces and said such actions will only further complicate an already volatile situation. "You are fighting a guerrilla force and not a conventional army. Their actions can change the course of a war anytime and it will be prudent to be mindful of such possibilities," the President was also advised. Possibly sensing the meeting was not going according to plan, the President appealed for India to play a more direct role in the peace process, complaining that the Norwegians and the SLMM were partial towards the LTTE.

The President also hinted at the possibility of looking at other options, little realising it takes two to tango and that unless the LTTE too agrees to a change in the facilitator, it is a no-no. And this point Manmohan made to Rajapakse and said India stands firmly behind the CFA and Norwegian facilitation and would advise him not to change course. It was also said apart from India the Co-Chairs, Canada and Australia also supported Norwegian facilitation. In fact, when former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran visited Sri Lanka in July too this issue was raised by the government and was told by Saran for India to play a direct role, she had to speak with both parties and that it cannot be done since the LTTE is banned in India. But the final decision, India said, was for Rajapakse to make in agreement with the other party to the negotiations. If that was the main course, then the dessert was that much more unpalatable with the Indian Premier focusing on the Indo-Lankan agreement and the north-east merger.

President Rajapakse of course tried to explain the difficulties he faced as a result of the Supreme Court decision and said he cannot undo what has been done though an alternative strategy was being looked at. "I am not in agreement with what happened but I cannot undo it because of the Supreme Court decision. The people in the east have to decide on the merger now and I will address that issue shortly, the President said. But the Indians did not buy that argument since they were fully aware the UNP had offered its support in parliament to introduce the necessary legislation to give legal validity for the merger and said as much. Besides, the President was told, in terms of the Indo-Lanka Agreement the government of Sri Lanka had to first merge the two provinces and then hold a referendum to decide its fate, and not have the provinces separated before the referendum.

In the final analysis, there was no real common meeting ground on any of the substantive issues with both India and Sri Lanka sticking to their respective positions, resulting in the President having to return virtually empty handed. Visit a failure So much so, there was not even a joint statement issued after the talks as is the usual practice with the decision being for each party to issue their own communiqu. The official reason given of course was that there was insufficient time for a joint statement. More significant was the President being denied even a photo opportunity with the Indian Prime Minister, a first for a Sri Lankan head of state, signalling the extent to which the country is getting internationally isolated.

In fact, Manmohan Singh himself gave instructions to keep the camera crews out of his official residence with a view to sending a message he did not wish to be photographed with the President given the human rights violations in Sri Lanka. And if the India visit was a failure in terms of results, there were more disasters to follow largely due to the ham-fisted approach of the Defence Ministry, and Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera not being kept in the loop on issues concerning the international community. It is no secret that the likes of Sajin Vass Gunawardena, Lalith Weeratunga and Palitha Kohona are running their own show on issues relating to foreign policy, keeping Samaraweera completely in the dark save for an invitation extended to a rare meeting as in the case of the Indian visit.

As a result of this situation, there is a lack of coordination between Temple Trees and the Foreign Ministry which incidentally was also one reason Foreign Secretary H.M.S. Palihakkara retired prematurely and had to be implored by the President to at least participate in the Indian visit. This lack of coordination has led to confusion in foreign policy which in turn has resulted in the government's failure to combat the negative image on its human rights record. This also led last week to former US President Bill Clinton deciding not to visit Sri Lanka in the course of his farewell tour of the region as the UN's Special Representative for Tsunami Relief.

Clinton, whose term ends December 31, has planned before relinquishing office to visit Thailand, Indonesia and India but not Sri Lanka which was one of the worst affected countries in the tsunami with over 30,000 people dead. However, the hopeless human rights situation, the deteriorating security climate in the country and the government's failure to move speedily on tsunami relief has prompted Clinton to skip Sri Lanka during his final tour. In making preparations for the tour, Clinton, who had developed a healthy rapport with former President Chandrika Kumaratunga, made it known he was extremely disappointed with Sri Lanka's handling of tsunami relief and that no purpose would be served in visiting a country where little contribution can be made.

Sri Lanka's growing isolation internationally after Rajapakse became President did not stop there either with an EU-sponsored resolution on human rights hanging fire in Geneva whilst UN Ambassador Allan Rock's report on children in armed conflict, where accusations were made on the complicity of military personnel in the recruitment of children for the Karuna group, also due to go before the UN Security Council in January. The Rock report in fact created such a furore both locally and internationally that President Rajapakse called for the evidence with Human Rights Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe in writing requesting the same from Special Rapporteur Radhika Coomaraswamy last week. That of course is outside the propaganda blitzkrieg against Rock launched by the government.

And the response came from Rock no less on November 27 with a formal communication and a summary of the evidence forwarded to President Rajapakse through the Sri Lankan mission in New York. A copy of the report was also forwarded to Minister Samarasinghe by Coomaraswamy. Rock's letter to the President Rock states in his letter to the President that he stands by his report and its credibility. He says there is indeed credible evidence that sections of Sri Lanka's security forces were involved in the recruitment of children for the Karuna group. In addition to the charges against the security forces, Rock also castigates the LTTE for child recruitment and forwards the evidence for the President's perusal.

However, in forwarding the evidence, Rock has been careful not to furnish the names or addresses of the eyewitnesses having considered implications for their security, a decision taken in consultation with the international community and top UN officials. It is that report which was awaiting President Rajapakse's return from his dismal Indian visit, much to his chagrin. That the government was out of step in its dealings with the international community was also evident when Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe together with Defence Secretary Gothabaya Rajapakse met with EU ambassadors and UN relief agencies on Tuesday, November 28 to discuss the humanitarian crisis. The meeting itself saw the Defence Secretary getting quite agitated at what he saw as unfair criticism by the international community on the government's response to the crisis.

It was when the question of sending relief supplies to Vakarai came up that the Defence Secretary charged, the LTTE having given an assurance to cease hostilities for passage of the humanitarian relief fired artillery from Vakarai, killing a soldier and injuring three others. German Ambassador Jurgen Weerth, who is also representing the EU presidency in Colombo, however was to reiterate the message of the Co-Chairs that there was a clear distinction between the conduct of the LTTE which is a banned terrorist organisation and the government. Ambassador Weerth said while the LTTE may well use human shields, the government cannot retaliate in a manner which would cause civilian casualties. Political solution Much as the Indian Prime Minister did, Weerth too pointed out there was a need to table a political solution and not a military exchange.

"The LTTE would not care but it is the duty of the government to care and the President to care for the people of Sri Lanka," the Ambassador said, much to Rajapakse's discomfort. And showing his displeasure, the Defence Secretary said the commitment of the government should be to achieve peace and not its delay by giving the LTTE a military advantage. That exchange alone highlighted the gulf in thinking between the government and the international community in dealing with the humanitarian crisis, which is bound to come to a head sooner rather than later. With the situation thus hopelessly poised, Norwegian Special Envoy Jon Hanssen Bauer arrived in Sri Lanka on Thursday and held talks with government representatives including Chief Negotiator Nimal Siripala de Silva. He is due to visit Kilinochchi this week.

The question however is what role Norway can now play short of asking the LTTE whether it is still prepared for talks provided the A9 is open in terms of the CFA as requested by the Co-Chairs. If the LTTE was to answer in the affirmative, does it mean Pirapaharan is prepared to compromise on his Eelam call made on November 27. The ball of course is in the government's court and it will first have to make a commitment on the opening of the A9, which if it does, the pendulum will swing the LTTE's way to make a commitment on talks, lest it gets further isolated internationally. However, all that will be immaterial if the government is working behind the scenes to sideline Norway and with it the international community. It is in this context and what transpired in New Delhi on Norway's role that made allegations against Norwegian International Development Minister Erik Solheim by Karuna significant.

True, the allegations against Solheim of funding the LTTE and being funded by the LTTE were without proof, highly comical and defamatory but the question that arose in the mind of the facilitator was why it came to be published in a state controlled newspaper, when it is the very state that has invited Norway to be the facilitator in addition to time and again reposing confidence in them publicly. Norwegian message In fact Hanssen-Bauer was to raise this issue at his meetings with government representatives on Thursday and Friday. The Norwegian message was that they were in Sri Lanka at the invitation of the government and if either the state or the LTTE did not want them as facilitator they were prepared to move on. The government however assured the Norwegian there was no government hand in the publication and would inquire into the circumstances under which the interview came to be published.

But what it did go to show was that Karuna indeed had access to the government media and the military, thereby giving credence to charges the state was working hand in glove with him. With that being the situation, the day of reckoning for the government is not far off and the final test will be the political solution to be submitted which, if short of federalism, will also see the UNP saying bye-bye.

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