Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka peace channels open, but little hope

Wednesday, 10 October 2007

LONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Mediator Norway says channels for talks between Sri Lanka's government and Tamil Tiger rebels remain open, but as fighting continues few in the country see any alternative to ongoing war. Around 5,000 people have been killed since a 2002 ceasefire collapsed last year -- a toll some observers say may top the number of deaths from violence in Sudan's Darfur region in the same period -- but, with little strategic impact on the rest of the world, international interest is limited.

Both the government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) say they want peace, but neither are considered keen to talk in the short term even though Norway says it is ready to help.

"What both sides are telling us is that they want a peaceful solution," Norway's peace envoy, Jon Hannsen-Bauer, told Reuters last week at his office in Oslo. "What is important for Norway is that we keep the channels open."

Norway's development minister and broker of the original ceasefire, Erik Solheim, met Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa in New York in September on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, but diplomats say that for now neither side has much to say to the other.

The Tigers, who have fought for two decades for a separate minority Tamil homeland in the north and east, have renewed their demands for an independent state and are unlikely to be willing to discuss southern majority Sinhalese proposals being drawn up by an All-Party Representative Committee (APRC).

"It has been delayed and the signs are it will not come up to the mark in terms of what will satisfy either Tamil or LTTE aspirations," said Jehan Perera, head of the non-partisan independent think-tank the National Peace Council. "There are no signs it will change the current military conflict."

Since major ground fighting restarted, the government has done better than most expected, clearing the rebels from territory they held in the east leaving them with a much smaller de facto state in the northern Wanni forests.

The military has been waging a gradual offensive against Tiger lines in the northwestern Mannar district and diplomats say it has been building up military supplies around rebel territory in what some view as preparation to again escalate.

MISSED CHANCE

However, few expect the military to be able to eradicate the Tigers from the dense jungle. An Indian peacekeeping mission in the 1980s haemorrhaged men in the same area after it ended up fighting both sides -- putting India off future involvement and deterring any thoughts of new peacekeeping missions in Sri Lanka.

The Tigers, experts at suicide bombing and listed as terrorists in many states, have retaliated with fewer blasts and attacks in the island's southern economic heartland than many expected. Two unprecedented raids with light aircraft on targets near the capital, Colombo, were high-profile exceptions.

After the failure of several ceasefires, most in the south see no alternative to continuing a war that has already killed almost 70,000 people, despite little hope of conclusive victory.

A recent survey by the National Peace Council showed 84 percent support for the military campaign, but 89 percent believed that even if the government was successful the conflict would continue.

The war has reduced tourist numbers, and high government spending has hit the economy. The rupee currency <LKR=> is one of the few to have declined against the already falling dollar.

Diplomats warn Sri Lanka has become more isolated following criticism of its human rights record, which has in turn prompted verbal attacks by government officials on international aid and lobby groups.

Rights groups say hundreds of mainly ethnic Tamils have disappeared, with killings of aid workers and journalists -- again mainly Tamil -- at some of the highest rates in the world.

Both sides -- as well as the Karuna group of renegade Tigers, seen as government-backed but now itself seen splitting -- are blamed. International observers say a commission of enquiry into high-profile killings, including the massacre of 17 aid staff last year, seems destined to fail completely.

Rajapaksa, elected in 2006 by a purely Sinhalese vote after a Tiger boycott kept Tamils away, is seen by some as more concerned about keeping southern electoral support than avoiding international criticism.

Some diplomats say both Tigers and government benefit from a war forcing their communities behind them. They say the island singularly failed to use aid and attention after the 2004 tsunami to cement a lasting peace deal and bring the rebels into the mainstream, as was done in Indonesia's Aceh.

"Sri Lanka never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity," said former U.N. undersecretary general Jan Egeland. "We told them that was their chance."

(For more information on humanitarian crises and issues visit www.alertnet.org)

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