At least seven soldiers died in the attack which came 24 hours before the Wild Life reserve was to be reopened after a short maintenance break for its most lucrative tourist season from October through to April. Dealing a further blow to the country’s limping tourism industry not a few hours after the LTTE launched their attack on the camp a mine explosion was to kill another soldier while the Tigers also reportedly opened fire at a Wild Life Department vehicle.

Tourist hotspot

Yala becomes a tourism hotspot in December and January especially with local wild life enthusiasts. The possibility of Tiger infiltration despite the army presence and the probability of buried land mines in the area that could cause a tragedy like that in Wilpattu last year will add a whole new dimension to the economics of the area as well.

The attack also demonstrates that the South remains abysmally vulnerable to attack despite the Rajapakse strategy of erecting army camps and barriers. Many of the most daring attacks on the South and the Capital including the strike on Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka, and third in command Parami Kulatunge were carried out during the Rajapakse period.

No talks for Tigers

It is obvious the LTTE is keeping to a strategic master plan. While President Mahinda Rajapakse was attempting to appease the international community by stating his government was ready for talks, the LTTE ruled out peace talks stating the coming days would be more conducive to the Tigers to carry out the war.

Calling the month of November crucial, the LTTE Peace Secretariat Head S. Pulidevan speaking at the 20th anniversary commemoration of Tiger cadre Malathi on October 2, stated there was no chance of peace talks in the future.

Warning that the future will be more destructive, Pulidevan added that most of the soldiers who were in the east were now in the north preparing for the fight.

Ironically President Rajapakse in using the war as a political tool on the one hand to maintain his support base in the ultra nationalistic south, and refusing to play ball with the international community on human rights issues on the other, is playing into the hands of the LTTE.

Sovereign state

Already the Wanni has in a letter addressed to the UN General Assembly before the September sessions in New York, stated that they want the International community to recognise the right of the Tamil people to sovereignty and support their right for independence on the same basis as East Timor and Kosovo.

For the LTTE, an intransigent, despotic war driven government, that has no respect for human rights or for civilians is the best possible scenario to legitimise their call for a separate state. It is also the best possible backdrop for recruitment of Tamil civilians back into their support base.

Last week the Rajapakse government blundered further by refusing UN Human rights Commissioner Louise Arbour permission to travel to Killinochchi. The government argument that such a visit would be used as propaganda by the Tigers further to security concerns was shallow and naïve.

Wanni is an integral part of a united Sri Lanka or unitary Sri Lanka if you prefer and Pirapaharan and his cadres whether they like it or not and whether the government accepts it or not are citizens of this country.

More prudent

It would have been far more prudent to allow not only Louise Arbour but any international human rights monitors to freely visit all combat zones in order to demonstrate that the government has no skeletons in its cupboard as it claims on the one hand and to allow the international monitors to investigate for themselves the several atrocities and human rights violations committed by the Tigers and other para- military groups on the other.

In fact stressing this point Arbour herself reportedly told media "I would have liked to convey directly to the LTTE my deep concern about their violations of human rights and humanitarian law, including the recruitment of children, forced recruitment and abductions of adults, and political killings."

UN Field presence

Arbour last Saturday also reiterated the call for setting up a field presence to monitor human rights violations but the government said it was not open for discussions over the matter. Arbour told media that a field presence from the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) would benefit the country and help build consensus among the public on the actual rights situation.

However Human Rights and Disaster Management Minister Mahinda Samarasinghe addressing the same press conference said that the government would only co-operate with OHCHR in capacity building and technical assistance to local institutions dealing with rights violations while Arbour reportedly warned that technical assistance would not be enough to deal with the level of violations taking place. "I believe technical assistance is a good thing but it is not sufficient (now)."

Losing credibility

Arbour warned that though the government insisted that national mechanisms are adequate for the protection of human rights, the Human Rights Commission of Sri Lanka ran the risk of losing international accreditation.

Ironically while Arbour warns of local mechanisms losing international credibility members of these local bodies set up by the government as facetious political windrow dressing, are themselves losing confidence in the government that appointed them.

Last Friday four respected members of civil society resigned from the advisory panel of a committee set up by human rights minister Samarasinghe citing differences with the government and stating officials were more interested in fighting rebels than protecting human rights. The four members were Award winning human rights advocate Sunila Abeysekera, Nimalka Fernando, Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu and Rohan Edirisinha.

Losing confidence

The 10-member panel, formed last year, hoped to push the government to investigate and prosecute soldiers, police officers and para-militaries blamed for an ongoing wave of assassinations, abductions and disappearances of civilians.

"The best efforts of the committee to contribute to human rights protection has been vitiated by either the unwillingness and/or inability of the government to take its advice seriously. In fact, violations have increased since the committee was constituted," a letter submitted by the four resigning panel members had stated.

Meanwhile, Samarasinghe defiantly stated the government was prepared to deal with international repercussions "We are ready to face any reports at the Council, we also have friends," he reportedly said, referring to the recent successful effort by the government to stall a critical resolution on Sri Lanka at the council sessions in Geneva last month.

To acquire a more sophisticate and mature approach, perhaps Sri Lanka has to learn lessons from a country like Nepal whose issues are similar in nature but with one vital difference. The Nepali government and the Maoists jointly invited UN human rights monitors into the country giving them a free hand within a specific context.

To this extent the UN presence has served as a gelling factor among the several parties to the conflict and observers feel is a key issue to keeping the Maoists committed to the peace process despite minor hiccups.

What Rajapakse fails to realise when he vehemently resists the presence of an international monitoring presence is that he is losing his initiative with the international community while paving the way for the LTTE to capitalise on the issue.

Military targets

The LTTE has, since the hawkish Rajapakse government came into power been careful to attack military targets rather than civilian targets while the government on the contrary has gone on a rampage adopting a carpet bombing scorched earth policy that has left thousands of civilians dead, injured or displaced with at least 350,000 in IDP camps in the north and east.

The Wanni leadership by this well timed restraint is building up to a planned strategy to transform itself from a rag tag rebellion fighter force into a legitimate political entity by word and by deed and this thinking was reflected in their letter to the UNGA this September.

Be that as it may the fall out of Arbour’s uneasy visit to Sri Lanka last week and the Yala strike is likely to have far reaching consequences economically as well. Apart from the immediate impact on the local and foreign tourism industry the recent events will impact on the government’s planned road show to raise US 500 million sovereign it so desperately needs.

Countrywide inflation has recorded an all time high of 21% in July this year according to the Sri Lanka Consumer Price Index (SLCPI).

Sri Lanka has also received negative ratings by the rating agencies with Fitch Ratings assigning a BB- with a negative outlook to Sri Lanka’s sovereign bond.

Fitch has judged this turn of events to be a material deterioration in the domestic security situation with potentially adverse consequences for growth, economic stability and sovereign creditworthiness.

In is in this context that the Tiger attack on the army camp attracts added significance since the Government has just about got set with their road show to raise in excess of US$ 500 million to overcome temporarily the serious financial crisis confronting her and that attack will undoubtedly send the wrong vibes.

Given the poor rating Sri Lanka is attracting for investment, Monday’s attack by the Tigers will signal to prospective investors the country is on a slippery slope with little prospect of the situation easing any time soon and that the climate is not conducive for risk taking.

That, coupled with the obvious impact the attack will have on tourism as the peak season approaches will be disastrous for the Rajapakse regime when it comes to raising desperately needed revenue.

At the end of the day it is the people who will be called upon to pay the ultimate price both in human terms and economically as the Rajapakse brothers muddle their way through.

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