After a lull of several weeks, the war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) took a dramatic turn last week with the attack on the Anuradhapura Air Force base, ending months of speculation about the striking capabilities of the Tigers.

By any yardstick, the attack has had serious consequences. On the one hand, it was the first instance where the terrorists launched a combined ground and air offensive, indicating its strength as a fighting unit. On the other hand, at least eight aircraft have been seriously damaged or destroyed, which must be a severe dent on the capabilities of the Sri Lanka Air Force (SLAF), not to mention the huge cost of the attack.

The aftermath of the attack has been almost predictable. The government media, as it usually does, when incidents of this nature occur, has been working overtime to question the credibility of anyone querying the preparedness for the assault. It has even gone so far as to say that those who pose such inquiries are traitors attempting to demoralise the armed forces.

The main opposition United National Party (UNP) meanwhile, indulges in its favourite past-time of ‘Rajapaksa bashing’, calling for the resignations of Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa with Air Force Commander Roshan Gunatilleke, added for good measure.

Insecurities

None of these postures are, of course, helpful and only indicate the respective political insecurities of the government as well as the opposition. More serious questions, however, loom and need to be addressed by saner counsel.

One factor hailed as a strong point of the Mahinda Rajapaksa regime, was its determined stand against the LTTE vis-a-vis military operations, and its refusal to yield to the many demands of the Tigers, even in the face of serious arm twisting from the international community. Obviously, this was compared to the ‘bend-over-backwards-to-please-the-Tigers policy of the Ranil Wickremesinghe led United National Front regime, and earned brownie points for Rajapaksa from the southern electorate.

The government was not shy to crow about its military successes either. It was stating its case, with the southern voter arguing that the war against the Tigers was the reason for the rising cost of living-not corruption, and not the burden of maintaining a humongous Cabinet of ministers either. And as evidence, it was citing first Mavil Aru, then Thoppigala and Silavatura, and finally, what it called the ‘liberation’ of the Eastern Province.

The attack on the Yala sanctuary that preceded the attack on the SLAF base, was an indication that the LTTE was not as impotent in the East, as it was made out to be. But, if anyone needed any convincing about the terrorists’ intentions or capabilities, the Anuradhapura attack would have laid any doubts to rest.

Bungle

When incidents of this nature occur, there has been a tendency for successive governments to bungle, especially, in the publicity war that ensues. And so it did. Initially, the government was to announce that three aircraft were damaged or destroyed, but the Opposition was to counter that by claiming 18 aircraft were affected. Then, Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickramanayake was to tell parliament that the number was in fact eight.

Then, there was the issue of the alleged displaying of the naked bodies of LTTE suicide cadres, who had perished in the attack. The LTTE and its allied media network were accusing the government of parading the bodies of the terrorists naked in a tractor, through the streets of Anuradhapura.

The government has responded saying that photographs that depicted such a scene had in fact been doctored. But, the irony must not be lost: here was a blatant act of terrorism by the Tigers, but the LTTE was now scoring points in a propaganda war, and has almost succeeded in putting the government in the dock!

Military perspective

From a military perspective, the inference from the attack is that the LTTE will use aerial attacks to try and weaken Colombo’s resolve to crush them on the battlefield. This is similar to the previous LTTE tactic of staging suicide bomb attacks in the city, when the ground war in the North entered crucial stages. Of course, aerial attacks would necessarily be fewer and far between, considering the logistics involved, but its impact is also that much more dramatic.

For the government though, the more immediate concern would be the political fallout of the attack. It is no secret that the war effort of the Rajapaksa regime, is its saving grace. The masses have been told to grin and bear the burdens of the skyrocketing cost of living, because a war is on. The war is, of course, also a good reason to put other issues-such as media freedom, corruption, and abuse of power-also on the backburner.

Promised land

The promised land is a land without the scourge of terrorism, and sections of the administration –including those in the highest echelons of power-genuinely believe this is possible. They also believe that if this is achieved, the southern voter will pardon all of their other sins, whatever they may be.

Last week’s attack though,

burst that bubble a bit. The government would now have to prove that the current setback was just a minor obstacle in the grander scheme of defeating the LTTE. There will always be ‘knee jerk’ bombings of ‘identified targets’, but such announcements will convince few in the long run.
If anything, the political tightrope that President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his regime are already walking, just got a little bit more difficult to balance.

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