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World: Why U.S. and allies have shifted to two-track strategy

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Sunday, 17 September 2006

After intense talks about Iran's nuclear program, the United States and other major world powers face two unappealing choices as the UN General Assembly opens this week: either introduce a resolution in the Security Council for sanctions against Tehran that may not be tough enough to make a difference, or delay any punitive measures, rendering their diplomacy on Iran meaningless.

So the U.S. and five other powers — Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany — have quietly shifted their strategy.

In June, they offered Iran a take-it-or-leave-it package of incentives in an effort to persuade the country to abandon its nuclear ambitions. No negotiations would start unless Iran first froze its uranium enrichment activities.

Now, the six countries have offered a major concession. They are embarking on a two-track approach that allows the European Union foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, to conduct open-ended negotiations with Tehran on the conditions for a suspension while the Security Council weighs punitive measures.

Solana and Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Larijani, met twice last weekend and plan to hold talks today in New York.

In diplomatic terms, the embrace of what is being called the practical, two-track approach looks like a subtle change. But in reality it is a fundamental shift and an admission of how few options are available.

In 2003, the United States was raising pressure on its European allies to refer Iran to the Security Council for sanctions. But with Russia and China threatening to veto, Britain, France, and Germany worked out a deal with Iran: no referral of the nuclear program to the Security Council if Iran suspended uranium enrichment, the first step in making fuel for nuclear power or a weapon.

A lot has happened since then, but one thing is the same: Iran is still enriching uranium.

The White House is again ready to push forward on a sanctions package at the UN, but it is doubtful that Russia and China would sign on to anything but relatively mild sanctions, at least at first.

If Europe and America insist on tougher sanctions, Russia and China might balk, and the coalition — fragile, but a conduit for pressure nonetheless — could fall apart. That is why, despite the expiration of the Aug. 31 deadline for Iran to suspend or face sanctions, the United States and Europe remain willing to keep talking.

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